Market Report July 2026
Logistics: Early planning for raw materials from Asia
Following a stable start to the year, the sea freight market is currently under significantly greater strain. A short-term shortage of shipping space, rising demand on Asia–Europe routes and reduced capacity are leading to longer transit times and higher freight rates. Services from Asia are particularly affected. As things stand, we expect this situation to dominate the summer months in particular. Shipments currently take around 60 days. We therefore recommend that you start planning with us at an early stage for relevant raw material origins. Together with our logistics partners, we monitor developments on a daily basis and manage critical shipments particularly closely in order to identify any potential impacts on delivery dates at an early stage and to safeguard supply security as effectively as possible.
Vegetable oils
The pressure on oilseed prices resulting from the tentative rapprochement in the Iran conflict is being put into perspective by the heatwave in Western Europe. Rapeseed prices are currently being supported by farmers’ reluctance to sell. Looking ahead, demand from the biodiesel industry as the largest consumer of rapeseed will be a decisive factor for pricing, in addition to weather conditions. The sunflower market remains tight – weather risks are becoming increasingly prominent, as some major growing countries are already almost too dry. Soybean prices are tracking those of competing vegetable oils, keeping demand subdued. At the same time, global harvest expectations are currently high. No price changes are anticipated in the foreseeable future.
The organic markets remain calm, with supplies from the previous harvest still ample. Buyers are acting cautiously, whilst suppliers are holding firm on price expectations and are making limited forward sales of the upcoming harvest. Uncertainties remain high for the new harvest, particularly due to weather conditions. Overall, prices are currently expected to remain stable.
Palm RSPO
The market is moving sideways to upwards. Although the upcoming peak harvest period may still put pressure on prices, the signs currently point to firmer prices – the first signs of the typical El Niño-induced drought are already becoming apparent and will be in full effect by 2027. It is advisable to secure positions through to Q1/2027.
Organic Palm RSPO-IP
Demand in South America is high, and many market participants have already hedged their positions through to the end of 2026. The forecast harvest figures for 2026 are down, and are unlikely to show any positive trend in 2027 either, due to El Niño. We recommend hedging through to the end of 2026, and possibly into Q1/2027.
Coconut
An earthquake in the Philippines, which caused no major damage, has brought the market’s downward trend to a halt. The approaching peak season may still bring about slight corrections in the short term. In the long term, the expected El Niño effects in 2027 will support the market. We advise securing your needs soon, through to the end of 2026, and, if necessary, partial hedging for Q1/ 2027.
Organic Coconut
Commodity prices are currently relatively stable, with a slight downward trend. The upcoming peak harvest period may still exert some downward pressure. We recommend hedging until the end of Q3 and, if necessary, carrying out partial hedging for Q4.
Palm Kernel
The market is trading sideways. There may be some further downward pressure on prices in the short term. It is advisable to cover Q3 positions; beyond that, the market should be monitored closely.
Groundnut
Weak demand, particularly from China (domestic production) and the birdfeed sector, is leading to low prices. Prices for near-term contracts are currently more favourable. From mid-Q4 onwards, prices are expected to rise slightly year-on-year. We advise securing needs until the end of Q3.
Glycerol
The severe shortage of rapeseed-based glycerol persists and is leading to very high prices. There are no signs that the situation is easing. Glycerol is a by-product of biodiesel production, which has declined significantly due to low margins. Even the high rapeseed harvest currently forecast is unlikely to alter the situation significantly. By comparison, palm-based glycerol is more readily available and more attractively priced.
MCT
Supply of palm kernel-based qualities is limited, with delivery dates restricted to the end of 2026. Prices remain high. From 2027, palm kernel-based MCT will fall under the EU Deforestation Regulation, in accordance with the European Commission’s proposal. At the same time, coconut-based alternatives are only partially available on the market, with issues relating to the shortage of glycerol having a significant impact. Please contact us to discuss your requirements.
Hemp
The 2026/2027 season is getting off to a much better start than the previous two years, with expanding cultivation areas and, so far, favourable weather conditions. Market participants are increasingly securing supplies through contract farming and reducing their reliance on the spot market – a response shaped by the experiences of recent years, during which regional weather events had a significant impact on availability and prices. We source on your behalf in both China and Europe.
Marine products
Marine oil, Omega-3, 18/12, Friend of the Sea or MarinTrust
The Peruvian government’s temporary fishing ban has already been extended twice, most recently for an indefinite period. Oceanographic conditions remain unfavourable. Prices are correspondingly high and are often valid only for a short period.
Oleoresins
Paprika
According to estimates, the total area under cultivation for sweet peppers in China is set to decline significantly. Regions outside the main growing area of Xinjiang are more severely affected than Xinjiang itself. We supply exclusively non-Xinjiang qualities. Regardless of origin, prices have already risen slightly in view of the forecast reduction in cultivation areas. As an alternative to Chinese qualities, we also offer paprika oleoresin sourced from South Africa. We recommend securing requirements up to February 2027 now and, for contracts from March 2027 onwards, waiting until the harvest forecasts for October/November 2027 are available.
