Market Report September 2026
Developments in the Freight Market
When analyzing the freight market, it is currently important to distinguish clearly between ocean and road freight. The ocean freight market will continue to be marked by exceptionally high volatility in 2026: Geopolitical tensions, port congestion, and spikes in demand have led to capacity shortages – most recently since late May, particularly on routes from the Far East, and since August on routes from the Indian subcontinent. This strain is likely to persist in the short term. In the medium term, we expect the situation to ease, thanks in part to additional vessel capacity. In road transport, the pressure is structural, with approximately 500,000 unfilled truck driver positions across the EU and persistently high diesel prices. There is no prospect of relief in this area for the foreseeable future.
Vegetable oils
In the rapeseed market, logistics problems continue to support prices for near-term contracts. Low water levels are making it difficult to supply mills with seed, while alternative transportation options by truck or rail are limited. For the 2026/27 marketing year, no supply bottlenecks are expected despite the German Farmers’ Association estimating a 20% decline in the harvest: Ukraine is increasing shipments by road and rail, and deliveries from Canada and Australia are also considered unproblematic. The sunflower market remains influenced by drought in Europe and uncertainties surrounding Ukraine. The latest harvest estimates for the EU are significantly lower. Good yields are still expected from Ukraine, though limited transport options due to destroyed port facilities are causing uncertainty. The market is adopting a wait-and-see approach; supply from Ukraine will dominate pricing in the coming months. For soybean, mixed yield expectations in the U.S. and the EUDR are keeping the market subdued.
The organic market is characterized by subdued demand as buyers hope for falling prices and await the upcoming harvest. For organic sunflower from the EU, volumes will be lower than last year due to drought and heat. Ukraine could play an important role as a supplier, provided that the flow of goods picks up again. No major price spikes are expected for organic rapeseed; reliable information on the 2026/27 harvest volume is still pending.
Palm RSPO
Palm is trading sideways. High production figures in the source countries are currently still holding back a price increase. Support is coming from high energy prices, strong local demand in Indonesia due to the blending quota, and the (expected) negative effects of El Niño. It is advisable to maintain full positions through the end of the year and partial positions into Q2.
Organic palm RSPO-IP
Expectations of a strong El Niño, as well as the upcoming implementation of the EUDR at the end of 2026, are supporting the market. Many market participants are therefore already securing their supply needs through 2027. We recommend covering supply needs through the end of Q1 2027.
Coconut
The market appears stable to slightly firmer. The peak harvest season in the producing regions is ensuring an adequate supply of raw materials, and coconut is benefiting from an attractive price position relative to palmkernel. At the same time, drought conditions are intensifying in parts of the growing regions, and their impact on the harvest is expected in 2027. We recommend reviewing requirements through the end of Q2 2027.
Organic Coconut
Prices in Sri Lanka have recently stabilized at a slightly higher level. By comparison, the Philippines is experiencing even more moderate price increases. Slight declines in harvests are expected in the coming months, but supply is considered secure. The effects of El Niño must be closely monitored. We recommend securing positions early, through the end of Q1 2027.
Palmkernel RSPO
Supply levels appear to be sufficient, with very strong demand from the oleochemical industry. The market is moving sideways. Given the expected impact of El Niño, the outlook is firmer. We recommend hedging through the end of the year and partial hedging through Q2 2027.
Macadamia
According to forecasts, global macadamia production in 2026 will increase compared to the previous year. Any resulting price declines will be offset by, among other factors, higher freight and production costs. We therefore recommend hedging through mid-2027.
Almond and organic almond
Prices for all grades have recently risen. With the harvest of conventional grades currently underway, harvest forecasts in California have been revised downward; in addition, more rainfall is expected, which could have a negative impact on the drying process. In the organic sector, prices are also raising, primarily due to higher raw material costs. Prices are expected to continue rising in both markets through 2027. We recommend securing supplies as early as possible for needs through Q2 2027.
Olive and organic olive
Prices, which had fallen significantly just before the Spanish summer break, have remained stable for the time being. A record harvest is still expected, although regional drought – which carries the risk of fruit drop – and the threat of wildfires are creating significant uncertainty. We recommend securing your basic needs early to mitigate future price and availability risks.
MCT
A tight market dominated by EUDR preparations, where spot volumes are either high-priced or unavailable. There are no signs of the situation easing. Shipments from the source are proving to be time-consuming and expensive. As things stand, for palm kernel-based grades, the finished oil – in addition to the fatty acids – is expected to fall under the EUDR starting at the end of 2027. Coconut-based grades containing glycerin derived from rapeseed are unavailable. Here, too, the negative effects of El Niño will be felt. We recommend securing supplies through at least the end of Q1 2027, and well beyond that for organic products. Please feel free to call us to plan your needs together.
Castor and organic castor
Persistently high demand, increased production and freight rates, and currency fluctuations have driven up prices in recent months. This trend is likely to continue, even though supply is secure thanks to good harvests and expanded cultivation areas. Against this backdrop, we recommend planning for long-term needs.
Shea and organic shea
Prices for the upcoming season have not yet been set. They are expected to remain high, though lower than last year. Market participants anticipate that the cocoa market will have a strong influence on the course of the season and, consequently, that prices will rise. El Niño will also have a negative impact on both cocoa and shea yields. We therefore recommend securing your full annual supply as soon as possible, covering the period until the start of the next season in October 2027 – or, if necessary, until the harvest arrives in Europe at the end of 2027.
Meadowfoam
Oil from the new Canadian harvest will be available in a few weeks. The significant increase in production and transportation costs is factored into the pricing. You can find more information about this oil – which has a very unique fatty acid composition – and its potential applications in personal care and healthcare here.
Waxes
Candelilla Wax
The market remains firm to rising. Mexico is the sole source and dominates global production. Harvest restrictions, labor shortages, and rising energy and logistics costs are limiting availability. The trend toward natural and vegan ingredients is driving demand. Producers are not offering long-term contracts. Availability should be prioritized over price.
Bees Wax
This season, the Chinese harvest is stable and supplies are ample. Prices are rising, driven by higher production and freight costs.
Carnauba Wax
In July, after a delay of several weeks due to rain, the harvest began in Brazil. A decline in the harvest is expected due to a labor shortage. Currently, supply remains ample, partly due to significantly reduced demand from the U.S. as a result of punitive tariffs imposed on Brazil. The situation is favorable for meeting demand through the end of Q1. The scarcity of candelilla wax is likely to drive up prices for carnauba wax as a substitute in the future.
Sunflower Wax
Demand for the wax remains strong, although the availability of the raw material remains limited. Planning ahead can help avoid shortages. Please feel free to contact us with your needs.We also have a new grade in our assortment containing an antioxidant.
Sumac Wax
We have a limited quantity available for you. The new Chinese harvest is expected to be available in mid-Q1.
Marine products
Marine oil, omega-3, Friend of the Sea, or MarinTrust
The 2026-I fishing season has now officially ended. Only 25% of the allocated quota was caught. The oil content is low, the proportion of juvenile fish high. Another survey voyage in September is expected to provide initial forecasts for the 2026-II fishing season. Given the ongoing effects of El Niño, price declines are not expected, and the markets remain very tight. Please contact us early to discuss your needs.
